Conclusion: nuanced answer rather than binary judgment Labeling Botswana as definitively “getting a raw deal” oversimplifies a complex, evolving reality. In relative and practical terms—given historical bargaining constraints—Botswana negotiated a partnership that delivered remarkable development gains and institutional strength. However, from a pure value-maximization perspective (especially compared to potential downstream retail margins), Botswana did not capture the full global value of its diamonds. The balance of evidence suggests Botswana negotiated a pragmatic, effective deal early on, then gradually improved its terms as market and domestic capacities evolved. The central policy challenge now is not merely historical fairness but future-oriented: accelerate beneficiation, diversify the economy, and ensure governance preserves and invests resource rents to secure intergenerational equity. If Botswana successfully pursues those strategies, any historical shortfalls will be outweighed by long-term gains; if it fails to diversify and add value, criticisms that it has left money on the table will retain force.
Under the previous framework, the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) received only 25% of the rough diamonds mined by Debswana, leaving De Beers with the lion's share to distribute through its proprietary network. This arrangement sparked a national debate over whether Botswana was receiving fair value for its primary natural resource. Breaking the Monopoly: Key Terms of the 2025 Agreement
Policy options Botswana could pursue to capture more value
De Beers, founded by Cecil Rhodes in 1888, has been a major player in the diamond industry for over a century. The company's dominance in the industry has been well-documented, and its influence extends far beyond Botswana. In the 1960s, De Beers began exploring for diamonds in Botswana, and in 1971, the company discovered the Orapa diamond mine, which would become one of the largest diamond mines in the world. The balance of evidence suggests Botswana negotiated a
While this looks like a win on paper, critics argue that the deal focuses on a "sunset industry." The Lab-Grown Threat
De Beers moved its global rough diamond sorting and sales operations from London to Gaborone in 2013, anchoring Botswana as a global gemstone capital.
For years, this seemed equitable. But critics argue that the world has changed, and the contract has not kept pace. The core of the dispute lies not in the mining of the diamonds, but in their journey after they leave the ground. For 50 years
Botswana’s president courts Oman amid De Beers’ control battle
Is Botswana getting a raw deal? Not compared to most resource-rich nations in Africa, which often see zero benefit from their minerals. Compared to the theoretical ideal—where a nation owns 100% of its resources and the downstream value chain—yes, Botswana is leaving billions on the table.
Botswana, De Beers sign diamond deal - The Patriot On Sunday and in 1971
After years of contentious negotiations and public criticism from former President Mokgweetsi Masisi, a formal 10-year sales agreement was signed in February 2025. Is Botswana Getting a Raw Deal From De Beers Diamonds?
The new deal signed in 2023 represents a desperate and necessary grab for sovereignty. Whether it is enough to sustain Botswana's future depends less on De Beers and more on how quickly Gaborone can turn diamond wealth into a post-diamond economy. For now, the partnership remains a "marriage of convenience" where both parties are sleeping with one eye open.
At the heart of the tension is Debswana—a 50/50 joint venture between the government and De Beers. For 50 years, the deal was simple: De Beers handled global marketing and sales; Botswana collected roughly 80% of the revenue from domestic production. But last year, a new mining code and a standoff over a new sales agreement exposed deep fractures.