In modern culture, saying "I don't know" is often stigmatized as a sign of weakness or ignorance. Duke argues the exact opposite: admitting uncertainty is the first step toward accurate thinking.
Instead of waiting for a project to fail to do a post-mortem, use and premortems before you launch.
Most people mistakenly view life through the lens of chess. Chess contains no hidden information and no luck. If you lose a game of chess, it is almost always because you made a poorer move than your opponent.
: Sarah needs to hire a new lead developer. She spends weeks vetting candidates, checking references, and conducting technical interviews. She chooses the candidate who is a perfect fit 90% of the time. One week in, the new hire has a family emergency and must leave the country. The Lesson
The you are currently facing (e.g., career change, investment, business launch) The biggest unknown factor or risk holding you back
When you declare that you are 100% certain about an event, you close your mind to new information. However, if you reframe your beliefs as percentages (e.g., "I am 70% sure this investment will yield a profit"), you accomplish two critical things:
Thinking in Bets was published in hardcover and paperback, but a quiet revolution has happened in digital margins. Search for and you’ll find forums, Reddit threads, and study groups dissecting specific pages. Why?
This book is for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills, including: